This chart tracks Washington State hay production from 2000 to 2024, expressed in millions of tons, and highlights how both weather extremes and market forces have reshaped the state’s forage sector. Red shading marks years when the U.S. Drought Monitor’s Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) exceeded 200, signaling severe to extreme drought conditions. The black dashed line represents the trendline, which slopes steadily downward—evidence of a long-term decline in total hay output.
In the early 2000s, production routinely ranged between 3.3 and 3.6 million tons, peaking in 2003, a period supported by stable growing conditions, reasonable input costs, and strong global demand. But after 2008, volatility increased sharply. Producers began facing wider swings in yields tied to recurring droughts, rising costs for fertilizer and fuel, and shifting markets that made recovery more difficult after each market shock.
The drought years shaded in red—2001, 2003, 2005, 2015, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024—align closely with Washington’s weakest production seasons. The 2015 drought stands out as one of the state’s most damaging, and the stretch from 2021 through 2024 marks the longest and most intense sequence of drought on record. By 2024, total hay production fell to roughly 2.5 million tons, the lowest level in nearly a quarter century. These years show how persistent dryness reduced both yield and regrowth potential, straining profitability even for established producers.
Starting in 2022, the challenges facing Washington’s hay growers deepened as global exchange rate shifts reduced the purchasing power of the state’s largest export customers. A stronger U.S. dollar made American hay substantially more expensive in markets like Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. Because most export hay contracts are priced in dollars, the currency imbalance caused overseas buyers to scale back orders or seek alternative sources. At the same time, producers in Australia and Spain gained a competitive edge due to weaker currencies and shorter shipping distances into key Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
This combination of drought pressure at home and shrinking affordability abroad delivered a double blow. High-value timothy and alfalfa destined for export lost momentum, with some hay diverted into lower-priced domestic markets. Even as quality remained high, the economic math of exporting—once Washington’s comparative advantage—began to erode. The chart’s downward slope illustrates this shift vividly: physical stress from heat and drought combined with economic stress from currency strength, undermining both yield and price stability.
Although non-drought years such as 2010–2011 and 2016 show brief recoveries, the overall trajectory remains negative, amounting to nearly a 25% decline in total hay output since the early 2000s. That decline reflects a deeper structural transition. Washington’s hay industry, once anchored in export volume, is gradually evolving toward domestically focused, value-driven markets—low-sugar hay for horses, highly diestable-fiber alfalfa for dairies, and regionally branded feed products.
Ultimately, this chart tells a broader story: Washington hay producers are adapting to an era defined by recurring drought and tougher global economics. Sustaining profitability will depend not on returning to historic tonnage, but on building resilience through diversification, efficiency, and alignment with markets that can weather both climate and currency swings.