Washington State Hay Market Report

   

     

Washington State Hay Market Report

     

Week ended August 21, 2026 | Washington and West Coast benchmarks

   

    

Washington hay market

Columbia Basin 3×4 alfalfa remains the strongest part of the market. The rolling benchmark increased 16.5% from the preceding 30-day period to $216.85 per ton and stands 31.4% above its comparable 2025 level. New August 21 trades included 5,600 tons of Fair/Good large-square alfalfa at $222–$235 for export and dairy use.

Large-square Timothy moved the other direction, falling 14.4% month over month to $204.44 and 5.5% below last year. Treat that decline cautiously: the latest window contains only 2,700 reported tons, versus 39,930 tons in the month comparison, and the newest trade was 1,000 tons of weedy Utility/Fair export Timothy at $160.

Hay price benchmarks

Washington alfalfa and market signals

All five lines are indexed to 100 on August 22, 2025 so markets with different price units can be compared honestly. Washington alfalfa is the 30-day tonnage-weighted Columbia Basin large-square 3×4 benchmark; milk, USD/JPY, corn and WTI use nearby or continuous weekly closes. A rising USD/JPY line indicates a weaker yen.

Related industry indicators

Market interpretation

National hay production gains and losses

U.S. all-hay production is projected at 113.3 million tons in 2026, down 9.8 million tons, or 7.9%, from 2025 and 10.2 million tons, or 8.2%, below the 2016–2025 average. The national decline is much larger than the gains recorded by the leading states.

Pennsylvania posted the largest gain at 436,000 tons (+17.2%), followed by Michigan (+350,000; +16.3%), New York (+240,000; +11.3%), Washington (+213,000; +8.7%) and Idaho (+152,000; +3.6%). Michigan stands 27.0% above its 10-year average and New York 4.6% above; Pennsylvania, Washington and Idaho remain 5.0%, 3.7% and 12.3% below their averages.

Kansas recorded the largest loss at 1.745 million tons (-28.8%), followed by Oklahoma (-1.649 million; -25.0%), South Dakota (-1.614 million; -28.3%), Texas (-1.450 million; -15.1%) and Minnesota (-884,000; -20.7%). Those five states account for 75% of the U.S. year-over-year decline. All are below their 10-year averages except Minnesota, which remains 0.9% above average despite its sharp annual drop.

Ranked by ton change from 2025. USDA reports the remaining states as an aggregate “Other States” category, so they are excluded from individual rankings.

Feed demand and livestock signals

Dr. Glynn Tonsor's August 24 LMIC commentary frames recent cattle-market developments as a coordinated response to scarcity. The August Cattle on Feed report showed July placements down 11% and marketings down 7% from 2025 even though the August 1 feedlot inventory was 2% higher. K-State Focus on Feedlot data also show cattle gaining 33% more weight and spending 47 additional days on feed in 2025 than in 2010.

For hay markets, the implication is mixed. More weight and longer feeding periods can support feed use per animal, but a thinner cattle pipeline and removal of packing capacity limit the number of animals moving through the system. Tyson's planned Joslin closure and proposed sale of the Pasco plant therefore matter more to regional forage demand than the short-lived futures reaction to the beef-import tariff waiver. Tonsor estimates the authorized import volume at about 2.5% of annual U.S. beef consumption and expects little aggregate effect on consumer prices, while warning that policy surprises increase volatility and can delay herd or packing investment.

That reinforces a cautious Washington outlook: feed demand per head may remain firm, but total demand depends on cattle numbers, plant operating pace and whether strong calf values ultimately overcome uncertainty enough to rebuild the herd. Milk and cattle futures still do not fully confirm Columbia Basin alfalfa's price strength, leaving quality and delivered cost as the immediate buying tests.

Source: Glynn T. Tonsor, “Headline & Signals - Let Markets Work,” LMIC, August 24, 2026. Hay-market implications are Hay Kings analysis.

Colorado River operating decision

On August 21, the U.S. Department of the Interior issued 2027–2028 operating guidelines and a Record of Decision for post-2026 Colorado River operations. The action is not a new interstate treaty; it is a federal operating decision, while a separate binational process for Mexico and the 1944 Water Treaty is still underway. The guidelines reduce Lower Basin deliveries by 1.25 million acre-feet in each of the next two years. If the states implement their proposed sharing agreement, Arizona would take 760,000 acre-feet of the reduction, California 440,000 and Nevada 50,000. The plan also calls for at least 700,000 acre-feet of additional voluntary conservation and storage over the two-year period.

For hay markets, the decision raises irrigation-supply risk in Arizona, the Imperial Valley and other Southwestern forage and dairy-feed regions. Alfalfa and grass hay grown in the Imperial Valley and elsewhere across the Southwest compete, to varying degrees, with Northwest hay in both domestic and international markets. The products are not perfect substitutes because species, quality, end use and freight differ, but they overlap for some livestock and export buyers.

If reduced water deliveries encourage conservation, fallowing or crop switching, fewer Southwestern tons could redirect some domestic buyers toward Northwest forage and reduce Southwestern competition in export channels. Washington is not directly subject to the Lower Basin reductions, but Columbia Basin sellers could see stronger buying interest or firmer delivered-price competition if Southwestern supplies tighten. This is a market-risk signal rather than a production forecast; effects will depend on water-district allocations, conservation payments, crop choices and 2027 hydrology.

Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, August 21, 2026. Hay-market implications are Hay Kings analysis.

Western drought conditions

U.S. Drought Monitor | August 18, 2026

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor. Percentages are shares of the West; see the weekly weather narrative and DSCI methodology.

Weekly changes and weather

The West showed little net movement from August 11 to August 18, but conditions shifted within the drought categories. D0-D4 coverage eased 0.3 percentage point, severe drought or worse eased 0.7 point and extreme drought or worse eased 0.1 point. At the same time, moderate drought or worse expanded 1.0 point and exceptional drought expanded 0.3 point. The DSCI held at 238, indicating that localized improvement was offset by deterioration elsewhere.

The weather pattern explains the mixed map. California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and northern Utah generally received little rainfall, and the West averaged a few degrees warmer than normal; small to moderate areas deteriorated in each of those locations. Southwest monsoon storms brought roughly 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain and supported localized improvement in southern Utah and Arizona. The wettest western areas were near the Idaho-Montana border and northeastern Montana, while southeastern Montana and eastern New Mexico stayed warm or dry and worsened.

For Washington hay producers, the immediate signal is continued drying pressure rather than broad regional relief. Limited rainfall can restrict dryland regrowth, increase irrigation demand and widen local differences in forage availability. The Drought Monitor is a broad-scale indicator, not a direct estimate of yield, water supply or farm loss.

Western drought: week over week

Sources

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• USDA AMS grain bids
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• USDA NASS production
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• CME agricultural bulletin
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• CME dairy bulletin
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• July 21 futures closes
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• Historical Class III milk
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• Reuters: August 21 WTI
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• USD/JPY history
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• Reuters: Tyson Pasco sale
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• Glynn T. Tonsor, LMIC: “Headline & Signals - Let Markets Work,” Aug. 24, 2026
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• Interior: 2027–2028 Colorado River operations
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• U.S. Drought Monitor
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• U.S. Drought Monitor weekly narrative
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