Washington State Hay Market Report
Week ended August 14, 2026 | Washington and West Coast benchmark
Washington hay market
Columbia Basin 3×4 alfalfa remains the strongest part of the market. Its 15.6% monthly increase contrasts with the nearly unchanged West Coast composite, suggesting that regional supply, cutting quality and package specifications are providing much of the support. The Columbia Basin benchmark is now 30.4% above its comparable 2025 level.
Large-square Timothy softened 3.5% from the preceding 30-day period but remains 6.5% higher year over year. The stronger yen since mid-July offers support to Japanese buyers, although the currency remains substantially weaker than a year ago.
Hay price benchmarks
| Market | Unit / nearby contract | Latest | Month ago | MoM | Year ago | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA-OR Columbia Basin alfalfa, large square 3×4 | $/ton | $215.09 | $186.09 | +15.6% | $165.00 | +30.4% |
| WA-OR Columbia Basin Timothy, large square 3×4 | $/ton | $230.59 | $238.88 | -3.5% | $216.43 | +6.5% |
| West Coast alfalfa composite | $/ton | $224.02 | $225.74 | -0.8% | $186.34 | +20.2% |
Related industry indicators
| Market | Unit / nearby contract | Latest | Month ago | MoM | Year ago | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland soft white wheat, current delivery | $/bu | $6.51 | $6.58 | -1.2% | $6.05 | +7.6% |
| CME corn, Sept. 2026 | $/bu | $4.59 | $4.39 | +4.7% | $3.84 | +19.6% |
| CME Class III milk, Aug. 2026 | $/cwt | $16.54 | $17.01 | -2.8% | $17.39 | -4.9% |
| CME Class IV milk, Aug. 2026 | $/cwt | $17.25 | $17.36 | -0.6% | $18.54 | -7.0% |
| CME live cattle, Aug. 2026 | $/cwt | $223.62 | $231.42 | -3.4% | $236.25 | -5.3% |
| CME feeder cattle, Aug. 2026 | $/cwt | $340.82 | $348.80 | -2.3% | $346.15 | -1.5% |
| CME soybean meal, Sept. 2026 | $/short ton | $310.20 | $321.50 | -3.5% | $283.40 | +9.5% |
| NYMEX WTI crude oil, nearby | $/barrel | $82.40 | $79.34 | +3.9% | $63.96 | +28.8% |
| CME urea, FOB U.S. Gulf, Aug. 2026 | $/short ton | $395.24 | $379.00 | +4.3% | $446.25 | -11.4% |
| CME DAP, FOB NOLA, Aug. 2026 | $/short ton | $795.00 | $767.50 | +3.6% | $801.50 | -0.8% |
| USD/JPY spot | Yen per $1 | 159.37 | 162.14 | -1.7% | 147.80 | +7.8% |
Sources: USDA AMS hay and grain reports; USDA NASS production estimates; CME agricultural and dairy bulletins; Wright Ag fertilizer futures; Brownfield historical closes; Federal Reserve H.10; Reuters reporting.
Market interpretation
What the associated markets say about Washington hay
Regional production outlook
Each cell shows 2026 tons; percent changes are vs. 2025 / 2016-2025 average.
| State | All hay | Alfalfa hay | Hay excl. alfalfa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington |
2,657,000 +8.7% / -3.7% |
1,820,000 +7.1% / +0.3% |
837,000 +12.5% / -11.3% |
| Idaho |
4,335,000 +3.6% / -12.3% |
3,567,000 0.0% / -16.0% |
768,000 +24.7% / +9.9% |
| Oregon |
2,333,000 -18.1% / -22.2% |
1,344,000 -18.3% / -19.6% |
989,000 -17.9% / -25.6% |
| California |
4,136,000 -6.5% / -21.1% |
3,080,000 -1.5% / -19.3% |
1,056,000 -18.5% / -25.6% |
Washington and Idaho exceed 2025 all-hay production, while Oregon and California are lower. All four remain below their 2016-2025 averages; this regional shortfall supports western basis and helps explain stronger Columbia Basin alfalfa prices despite Washington's larger crop.
Feed demand and livestock signals
Associated feed and livestock markets were generally softer. Portland wheat, milk, cattle and soybean meal declined during the month. Corn was the exception, gaining 4.7% and standing 19.6% above the year-ago same-contract reference. The broader indicators still do not confirm Columbia Basin alfalfa's strength, leaving dairy buyers focused on quality and delivered cost.
Tyson offers Pasco beef plant for sale
Tyson Foods said August 13 it is pursuing a sale of its Pasco beef plant while closing facilities in Illinois and Utah and concentrating its network in Nebraska, Kansas and Texas. Tyson plans to shift production to maintain a similar national slaughter level. Pasco can process roughly 2,000 cattle per day, making the buyer and operating schedule important regional variables.
A buyer that keeps Pasco near capacity would preserve regional packer competition and feedlot throughput. Fewer shifts or a closure would reduce local bids, weaken Pacific Northwest cattle basis, and add freight and shrink for cattle sent farther away. It could also reduce cattle placements and local demand for Columbia Basin alfalfa, grass hay and other feed ingredients. Watch the buyer, closing date, slaughter schedule and capacity.
Input costs
Energy and fertilizer are the principal cost warnings. Nearby WTI crude rose 3.9% during the month and 28.8% from a year earlier, raising potential fuel and freight costs. Nearby urea increased 4.3% and DAP gained 3.6% during the month. Urea remains below last year, but renewed monthly strength could affect 2027 establishment and production budgets if it persists.
Dollar-yen stabilization effort
Recent currency action involved several channels: Japanese authorities bought yen, Washington coordinated through the U.S. Treasury and New York Fed, and BOJ and Federal Reserve expectations influenced the interest-rate gap.
The intervention initially strengthened the yen from about 163.99 to 155.20 per dollar. By August 14, USD/JPY had returned to 159.37. The yen remained 1.7% stronger than July 14 but 7.8% weaker than a year earlier - modest relief for Washington exporters, but still materially weaker Japanese purchasing power than in August 2025.
Weaker U.S. retail sales and inflation reduced expectations for a September Fed increase, while markets expected another BOJ increase after its June move to 1%. That may limit further dollar appreciation, though more intervention remains possible if USD/JPY nears 160.
Western drought conditions
U.S. Drought Monitor | August 11, 2026
Source: U.S. Drought Monitor. Percentages are shares of the West; see the DSCI methodology.
Western drought trend
| Reference date | D0-D4 | D1-D4 | D2-D4 | D3-D4 | D4 | DSCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current - Aug. 11, 2026 | 93.3% | 73.3% | 50.1% | 19.3% | 2.1% | 238 |
| Last week - Aug. 4 | 91.3% | 72.0% | 50.0% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 234 |
| 3 months ago - May 12 | 91.9% | 71.9% | 48.0% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 230 |
| Calendar-year start - Dec. 30 | 64.4% | 41.0% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 125 |
| Water-year start - Sept. 30 | 81.9% | 64.8% | 44.1% | 12.0% | 0.7% | 204 |
| Year ago - Aug. 12, 2025 | 83.8% | 65.5% | 42.8% | 14.1% | 1.4% | 208 |
Drought market implications
Western drought intensified into August 11. D0-D4 covered 93.3% of the region, while severe drought or worse covered 50.1%, extreme drought or worse 19.3%, and exceptional drought 2.1%. The DSCI reached 238, up 4 points in a week, 30 points from a year earlier and 113 points since the start of the calendar year.
The map shows Washington generally less severe than many interior-West areas, while Oregon and parts of the Intermountain West face greater stress. Continued drought can limit nonirrigated yields, raise irrigation and freight costs, and increase supplemental feeding as pasture deteriorates. That risk reinforces the tighter regional production picture in Oregon and California and may support western hay basis, even though Washington and Idaho produced more than in 2025. Conditions vary locally, and the Drought Monitor is not a direct yield estimate.
Sources
- USDA AMS grain bids
- USDA NASS production
- CME agricultural bulletin
- CME dairy bulletin
- CME fertilizer futures
- July 14 futures closes
- Reuters: Aug. 14 WTI
- Aug. 14, 2025 futures
- Reuters: Tyson Pasco sale
- WSJ: Pasco capacity
- Reuters: yen intervention
- Reuters: Aug. 14 USD/JPY